How Many Days is Enough? →

The 14-day quarantine period put forward by WHO and the CDC was based on smaller studies of sicker hospitalized patients. But an estimated 80% of adult COVID-19 patients are not sick enough to be hospitalized, and people can be infectious with the new coronavirus well before they develop symptoms. The new study found that the median incubation period was seven days for adults and nine days for children, far longer than the mean of 5.2 days from an earlier study out of Wuhan.

So hopefully, 8 days is enough for me? But…

For that study, researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and two other universities analyzed 181 cases of COVID-19 in 25 countries, from early January to late February. They found that 97.5% of people who developed symptoms did so within 11.5 days of exposure.

However, the researchers extrapolated that for every 10,000 exposed individuals, 101 would develop symptoms after a 14-day quarantine. Reuters reported on one such case in late February, that of a 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province who did not show symptoms until 27 days after he was infected.

Maybe 11.5 days is better? I haven’t been around any known cases that I know of but like I mentioned, I did traverse quite a few areas while being out on Captain training and the journey back to where I am today.

How It Spread Early and Quickly →

While the flight was in midair, the results of some American passengers who'd been tested in Marseille came back. Three had tested positive for coronavirus and 13 others had symptoms, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told CNN.

Over 350 people who'd been in the confined space of a cruise ship continued with their journey in the even more confined space of a transatlantic flight.

"We were covered with virus from head to toe. We should not have been in the airport," said Harrell Catron.

There was no mitigation and complete disregard for how dangerous and quiet this virus could be. Now with reports saying that some were asymptomatic for up to 40 days… this is not looking good for any type of “shelter in home” / self quarantining.

For the sake of self contact tracing and history, I boarded a plane from SAN-MCO direct with only 8 people on Alaska Airlines 760 on Monday the 30th of March. I took the shuttle to our training center in Orlando, and stayed there until we received our cancellation notice on Thursday night. I did one more session to finish up our current “phase” of training on Friday night and then charted my way back to San Diego on Saturday the 4th of April via MCO-ATL-SAN.

Shuttle, train to plane DL 418 MCO-ATL, then terminal to train to terminal, Willie’s for a naked burrito then plane DL 1951 ATL-SAN, then terminal to Uber to Hilton Torrey Pines and have stayed in the room mostly except for the coffee grab in the morning. I have been here since Saturday night at around 20:30 when I checked it.

There were hardly any persons in the airports as noted on my instagram story, and I only had to use the facilities once at each airport. Maybe once on the plane too if I think about it. I was spaced out on all my flights but did have a cat that was taken out of its carrier on the ATL-SAN leg and I could see hairs flying around in front of me. I did use my mask the entire way while walking around everywhere even on the entire flight.

Originally, I was going to stay until Monday or Tuesday, but then my wife and I felt like 5 days or more just in case would be smarter, so that brings us to Friday, and now, with newer reports saying 14 days isn’t enough, we’re thinking at least until Sunday which would bring it to just over 7 days + 14 hours. I’ll be pissed if I get sick and it was all for naught. Follow the thread below from twitter user Eric Feigl-Ding who is currently the #1 CoronaVirus Authority on twitter and Harvard Epidemiologist / Health Economist and John Hopkins alumni.

Thread 🧵- INCUBATION TIME LONGER THAN 14 days. ⚠️This is a serious problem that I can’t stress enough because we based all our quarantine on this magical 14 day number. But many people have longer incubation periods than 14 days- this is problem. #COVID19 https://t.co/ZhyJW3Ywxg

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 6, 2020

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Just Because It's Been 17 Days in Cali →

And the problem is, the data shows that there can be presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission. I don’t want to be exposed to someone who may not be having symptoms but can get me sick.

-Krutika Kuppalli, infectious diseases physician, Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security

Trusting your friends is fine and all but trusting everyone else who's circle could be much larger... and the fact that you don't know where they have been in the previous 14-days, it gives you pause. Unless you are fully quarantined for the two weeks which is being at home w/ 0 exposure e.g. not going to the grocery store or anyone at the home going out, you’ll never know.

But [if you’re going to interact with one other person], be very explicit about what the agreement is, and try to choose someone who’s got [a similar level of risk]. If you’re a writer and can work from home, ideally your friend would also be somebody who’s able to work from home, not an emergency medicine physician.

Let me give you an example of something else a student of mine decided to do. She lives alone in Philadelphia and her best friend also lives alone in Philadelphia. They each isolated themselves for two weeks and then moved in together for the duration [of the pandemic].

I like that plan so much more than the other plans I’ve heard of, because then you’re in constant communication with the other person and you’re aware of anything they need to do to break the protective bond. It’s easier to have an ongoing conversation about preventative strategies when you’re living with the person. If people are living separately, one person might forget to update the other.

-Carolyn Cannuscio, social epidemiologist, University of Pennsylvania

If you are going to isolate together, that’s great, but first you have to be 0 percent exposed for 14 days.

That being said, at its crux, social distancing doesn’t mean you need to stay home by yourself in a dark room. Really it’s about keeping to small, small groups of people. So if you have dinner with a friend, that makes sense as long as it’s just you and them.

For people who are going to have those one-on-one friend hangout sessions, it shouldn’t be, “I’m going to have five one-on-one sessions with five different people” — that defeats the purpose. Really limit it to just one friend.

If you want to be an awesome coronavirus epidemiology buddy, do it every 14 days, because that’s the incubation period. You’d want to do that from the last known date of exposure. That includes going to the grocery store, because theoretically anytime you go into an environment with a lot of people, there’s more potential for exposure to the disease. Then you want to ask each other, “Have you been symptom-free for 14 days? Have I? Yes? Okay.”

-Saskia Popescu, senior infection prevention epidemiologist, Honor Health hospital system in Arizona

I see too many friends still violating this. And damn if I don’t continue to quarantine for 14-days after coming back from Orlando, Florida where our training center is to which I went to the Orlando Airport via local shuttle, train, plane, Atlanta Airport, train, plane to San Diego Airport, Uber to hotel. Now what…

JetBlue's New Fare Classes are Better than Meets the Eye →

The big news is that the price differential between Blue and Blue Plus tickets is generally only $15. JetBlue has made it a better value to purchase a ticket that includes a checked bag than it is to pay a bag fee, even in advance. In addition, buying a Blue Plus fare earns more TrueBlue points than the base fare, for marginally more money.

In comparison, Delta and United don’t have fares that include a checked bag, nor do they let passengers purchase checked baggage ahead of time for a reduced fee. American does offer fares with checked bag included, but the premium is more than the cost of a checked bag, although it does include group one boarding.

Essentially, if you are going to check a bag, don't book on Orbitz or Expedia and just select Blue Plus via JetBlue.com. Attention media, friends and family, it's still the best out there.

Review: Brenthaven's Broadmore Backpack Optimized for Travel

The Brenthaven company was first introduced to me by the online Apple Store back in October 2001. I purchased my first Apple notebook, the Powerbook G4 667MHz Gigabit and chose a messenger style case. Brenthaven offered a special foam sleeve which perfectly cradled my prized titanium possession. Brenthaven knocked it out of the park providing plenty of other pockets that would fit my college notebooks and other accessories. Thirteen years later, you wouldn't be able to tell it's age.¹ It stayed with me when I upgraded to the MacBook Pro and also snuggled my wife's MacBook Air comfortably. But, back to why we're here; the TSA Friendly and amazingly spacious Broadmore Backpack.

If you don't already know, my career as an airline pilot requires me to travel quite a bit. In and out of various hotels, hotel shuttles, airplanes and airports, durability is of the utmost importance. TSA friendly bags offer a welcomed bonus but that never proved to be a deciding factor. Since I upgraded to Captain, I've found that sitting on reserve in base for days at a local hotel can be quite mundane. This made it urgent that my next bag needed not only fit my laptop but accommodate a Sony Playstation 3 which I know would provide me hours of entertainment.

I received a Brenthaven Broadmore BackPack last week to review for elijahnicolas.com and it has easily become my primary bag. Packed to the brim, it's proving every bit a worthy successor to my original Brenthaven Messenger. I was impressed by the generous padding not only on the back but on the shoulder straps which are also spliced with Napa leather. The zippers are high quality and the two soft lined pockets serve for quick storage or immediate access to your iPhone / Android and sunglasses. There are also two side pockets that can easily hold a water bottle or tumbler or whatever else you'd like.

One of the defining qualities of Brenthaven's Broadmore line is the "quilted and fully padded CORE™ Protection laptop compartment."

A Protection System that wraps your laptop in high-density protective foam. Flexible bow shaped forms at either end of the laptop compartment automatically adjust to allow a snug fit for any size laptop. Patent ID #7,549,535.

I was under the impression that I would end up using a companion sleeve for my laptop but I'm surprisingly comfortable sliding my MacBook Air 13" or MacBook Pro Retina Display 15" naked into the pocket. It hugs the laptop like a glove and so far, after a couple of unintended drops, the backpack has done it's job well. And yes, even my PS3 has survived.

I mentioned that I planned on carrying my laptop and Playstation 3 but I was able to pack in even more goodies into the Broadmore Backpack. Unknown to me prior to receiving the bag, it included an awesome iPad compartment in the inner pocket. A keyring and serial number can be found inside the outer most pocket and holds just about everything else with slots for pens, pencils, USB drives and wires a plenty. You could even throw in a few Field Notes notebooks too. Don't forget the zippered pockets within the backpack than will also keep those loose trinkets from getting lost in the bottom.

Overall, I'm very happy with the bag. It holds exactly what I need and more. It's stylish, well-built and I can see it being my last.

From left to right: Contigo Autoseal Stainless Steel Travel Mug 20oz, Sony Playstation 3, MacBook Air 13", PS3 power cable, HDMI cable, Thunderbolt to HDMI cable, Sony Playstation Wireless Headset, MacBook Air Powercord, Google Nexus 7" (2012), Hidden Radio Generation 1, PS3 Controller, followed by wallet, watch, keys, bracelet and my iPhone which I used to take this photo. An impressive feat and it even fit underneath my seat on an American Airlines MD80! I like the travel somewhat light. This bag weighs 3.1 pounds while measuring 14.5" W x 18" H x 6.5" D.

This beautiful bag is available from Brenthaven at $249 and comes with a 100% Lifetime Guarantee! If you find yourself traveling as much as I do or appreciate great craftsmanship and attention to detail, make this backpack your last.

Fits: MB Air 13.3", MB Pro 13.3", 14", MB Pro 15.4"

this post was written while listening to Noon Pacific.

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1. I have since lost the actual Brenthaven messenger strap when the bag was checked on as a valet bag on a flight years ago. ↩